Trump′s presumption that he could negotiate a better deal does not hold water. He has yet to demonstrate his so-called negotiating skills when he failed miserably to negotiate even with his own party to pass a new healthcare bill. Moreover, given that Iran is in full compliance, it will categorically refuse to negotiate a new deal.
No reason to trust Trump
The cancellation of the deal will also severely undermine U.S.′ credibility, especially at this juncture, when the U.S. is trying to find a way to negotiate with North Korea over its nuclear weapons. North Korea′s leader Kim Jong-Un will have no reason to trust Trump. To stop expanding his nuclear arsenal, on which he believes his country′s survival hangs, he needs assurances that the U.S. is negotiating in good faith – reneging on the nuclear deal will make any prospective negotiations with North Korea to reach a sustainable agreement much harder to conduct.
The U.S.′ allies France, Germany and Britain – along with Russia and China, who are signatories to the deal – are sternly objecting to the nullification of the deal and will not support the imposition of new sanctions. Moreover, abandoning the deal will leave the U.S. completely isolated, undermine global security and strain its relationship with allies, which are already under mounting stress because of Trump′s unseemly and erratic behaviour.
Should the deal be nullified and Iran end up with nuclear weapons, it will significantly boost its regional sway and further advance its ambition to become the region′s hegemon, which will allow it to bully its neighbours. Moreover, it will intensify the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran, prolong the proxy Sunni-Shia war in Yemen, Iraq and Syria and further entrench Iran throughout the crescent between the Gulf and the Mediterranean.
New American sanctions a poor deterrent
It will hinder the U.S.′ effort to fight violent Islamic extremism as Iran will be far more vested in supporting extremist groups, funding terrorism and destabilising the region wherever and whenever it suits its needs. In addition, Iran will aggressively pursue its missile programme and will not be deterred by new American sanctions, which have been a critical tool in pressuring Iran in the past.