Democracy under Pressure
As voters in Azerbaijan go to the polls on 6 November, they will do more than choose a new parliament. They will take part in a vote seen as a gauge of stability and commitment to democracy in the former Soviet republic. Marianna Yahilevich reports
Rich in oil and gas, the secular Muslim state is being closely watched by the West, which is keen to invest in Azerbaijan's rapidly expanding economy. But the months and weeks leading up to the poll have seen rising tensions in the country. A series of top-level government sackings, police violence, mass arrests, and a media clampdown all suggest that the political process in Azerbaijan is not quite as free and fair as the government insists.
Baku, Azerbaijan's capital, is a city in transition. A flurry of development is leading to growing numbers of luxury hotels and high-rise office buildings, yet they are still significantly outnumbered by flimsy, broken-down apartments. Although Azerbaijan's economy is booming, a relatively small percentage of its 8 million people has reaped the benefits of the country's oil and gas wealth.
An economy of rags and riches
According to the International Monetary Fund, nearly half of Azerbaijan's population lives below the poverty line. Though wages are steadily increasing, in 2004 the average monthly salary in Azerbaijan was about 80 euros. Rampant corruption keeps many people destitute while making a select few spectacularly wealthy – in Azerbaijan, there is virtually no middle class.
Around the corner from Baku's designer boutiques are the ragged street-traders peddling their wares; sleek Mercedes cars race past the battered and rusting Ladas and Volgas.
In more ways than one, Azerbaijan is at a cross-roads. Fourteen years after gaining its independence from the Soviet Union, the country is about to hold what its authoritarian president Ilham Aliyev promises will be free and fair parliamentary elections. But Naila Mamedova and Gunai Abbasova have their doubts.
With husbands in the oil business, the two women belong to Baku's privileged class. But even as they ride through town in an air-conditioned Mercedes, they both express frustration with the political situation in their country.
"We only have democracy on paper (...). Here, if you support democracy that means you are an enemy of the ruling government. That's what's so scary. They talk as though there's democracy here, but there isn't any. It's all just meaningless rhetoric".
The fraudulent elections of 2003
President Aliyev himself succeeded his father two years ago in an election widely condemned as fraudulent. His victory was not confirmed by international observers but by a brutal government crackdown on protesters, which led to at least one death.
Ahead of Sunday's parliamentary poll, there are fears that this vote will too-closely resemble Azerbaijan's last one. The pre-election environment has grown increasingly tense, especially in Baku. Opposition activists have been staging rallies virtually every week, which have been violently dispersed by police. A number of high-ranking government officials have been sacked and jailed, accused of conspiring to overthrow the government.
An exiled opposition leader, Rasul Guliyev, was prevented from returning to Azerbaijan to run in the poll and was briefly arrested in transit in Ukraine.
Environment of intimidation
Monitoring the pre-election developments in Baku is Matilda Bogner from Human Rights Watch. She's concerned about the impact that the mounting violence and mass arrests will have on the voters in Azerbaijan.
"When there's a whole environment of intimidation against the opposition it's not even possible to look at what the general population's opinion is, to see that or gather that, because people haven't even been given the chance to freely make up their minds (about) who they want to support."
Western governments have also expressed concern at the pre-election violence and arrests. Both the European Union and the United States have issued statements stressing the importance of a democratic vote to Azerbaijan's future. With its huge untapped oil riches, strategic location between Iran and Russia, and as a moderate Muslim state, Azerbaijan is viewed as a crucial partner in the Caspian Sea region.
And the upcoming launch of a multi-billion-dollar pipeline linking Baku's oil rigs to the Mediterranean will soon make Azerbaijan a major alternative source of oil for the West. Which are all reasons why Western powers will be watching Sunday's parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan very carefully.
President Aliyev's administration at the very least seems to be making an effort to reassure international observers that the vote will be fair. Just last week, Aliyev finally bowed to foreign pressure and agreed to have voters' fingers inked to prevent multiple voting, and that foreign organizations could monitor the poll.
Signs of hope
Most of the more than 2,000 candidates in Azerbaijan's parliamentary election are running as independents. Balakishi Gasimov is one of them. The 27-year-old business consultant says that voters are more likely to trust an unaffiliated candidate than someone from the ruling party or the opposition.
Gasimov may also have some doubts about the fairness of the upcoming vote, but, at the very least, he says, it will be better than the last election. And he is optimistic that things will continue to improve.
"People are waiting for, believe in, and want change. Voters in Azerbaijan want to see fewer populists and more technocrats and professionals in parliament, young people with a fresh approach to solving problems, people who do not know the meaning of corruption and don't want to know; who can put their intelligence and expertise to use for the benefit of the nation."
The possibility of a pro-democracy revolution
There has been some speculation over the possibility of a pro-democracy revolution in Azerbaijan like the ones following rigged elections in Ukraine and Georgia. But political analysts say that this is unlikely. The opposition lacks clear leadership and the ruling New Azerbaijan Party has wide support.
For their part, Naila Mamedova and Gunai Abbasova don't want to see political upheaval in their country. But they are clear about what they do want.
"No, we are not hoping for a revolution. All we are hoping for is that there can finally be at least one free and fair election in Azerbaijan, because we've never had one. "
Marianna Yahilevich
© DEUTSCHE WELLE/DW-WORLD.DE 2005
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