A Ray of Hope for Cyprus

On September 3 new negotiations will begin on the divided island of Cyprus. But what are the chances for a reunification? Tuba Tuncak interviewed Cyprus expert Heinz A. Richter

Dimitris Christofias and Mehmet Ali Talat (photo: AP) — Rival Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders said they will start historic reunification talks on Sept. 3, ending four years of deadlock and sparking hope that the island's three decade division could finally end

Mr. Richter, can we hope this time for a solution for Cyprus?

Heinz Richter: If the Cypriots, the Greek and the Turkish, negotiated alone, I am certain that they would work out a solution, especially since Christofias and Talat have similar political views. The Greek Cypriot side is negotiating for itself. Athens is watching, but will agree to any solution that the Greek Cypriots will accept. It is in Athen's interest finally to be free of this problem that hangs around its neck like a millstone. In many ways the Turkish Cypriot side is totally dependent on Ankara, and any decision must receive Ankara's approval. It starts on the local level where the Turkish military controls everything that deals with security. This extends all the way to the police force and the fire brigades, all of which are subordinate to the Turkish military.

The Cyprus question is decisive for Turkey's EU membership. How do you appraise the attitude of the Erdogan government towards the Cyprus question?

Richter: There is a great conflict underway in Turkey at the moment. One could almost speak of a kind of war, one between the Atatürk camp, consisting of the high military, the high ministerial bureaucracy, and the high judiciary, and the current government. An external sign of this was the recent attempt to ban Erdogan's party. Erdogan's ruling party is trying to bring Turkey into the EU. Now one could actually expect that the Atatürk camp would also be striving to bring Turkey into the EU – at least Atatürk initially oriented Turkey toward Europe. But here a paradign shift has occurred.

The establishment, supported by the "deep state", that is, the secret services and especially the military, form a state within a state in Turkey, not only politically but also economically. If Turkey became a member of the EU, the military would naturally have to accept the primacy of politicians; in other words, they would have to surrender their economic empire. Thus they would lose vast privileges. This is one of the reasons why not many friendly EU overtures are coming from this corner.

So you are saying that there is a fraction in Turkey that is interested in hindering the solution in Cyprus in order to prevent Turkey from joining the EU?

Richter: Now it gets complicated. First of all, the question of Cyprus cannot be decided on the classic political level. In Turkey, there are principally two political levels. Like elsewhere, one level is the playing field of politicians, where ideas can be expressed and steam let off. But above this level are the national policies that are stipulated by the National Security Council. Half the positions in this council are occupied by the military, the other half by top government officials. In earlier times the Secretary General of this committee also came from the military. This position is now occupied by a civilian, but the real power relationship has not changed. Decisions about Cyprus will be made in the National Security Council and nowhere else.

But the Justice and Development Party was not banned. Hasn't this strengthened Erdogan's position regarding Cyprus?

Richter: It only appears that way. The resolution was very close in the Constitutional Court. He was given a little more elbowroom. But the military still calls the shots.

Do you believe then that the military will determine the solution for Cyprus that will eventually end this conflict?

Tayyip Erdogan and Mehmet Ali Talat (photo: AP) — Erdogan visited Turkish occupied northen Cyprus for three-days in July 2008 to attend invasion commemorations

Richter: That depends on whether the military wants to get rid of this problem. Maintaining a constant presence of 40,000 troops on the island is a burden to the military budget. That should be clear. Apart from that, every second Turkish Cypriot is employed in the public sector, which is fully financed by Turkey. In the long term this is a burden itself, even though it is only a few hundred thousand people. On top of this, there are new problems in the region – Iraq, Georgia, the large pipeline, etc. So it is possible that the General Staff will say, okay, we want to quiet down this flank by agreeing to a solution.

What can the EU do to encourage both sides and Turkey to find a solution?

Richter: Very little. Alternatively, the EU could exert pressure here and there, only: who in the EU is ready to accept Turkey as a member of the EU? In secret it is hoped that the Turkish military will do the work and block the accession so that EU politicians can wash their hands of the matter in all innocence.

In 2004 the plan of UN Secretary General Annan was rejected by the Greek side. There is now a new plan which foresees a federal state with two equal founding states. In general, does this plan offer a good basis for negotiations?

Heinz A. Richter (photo: private copyright) — Heinz A. Richter believes that Dimitris Christofias and Mehmet Ali Talat both want a solution for Cyprus

Richter: In principle, they have returned to the High Level Agreement of 1977, when Makarios and Denktas actually signed something similar. Only, unfortunately, back then Denktas changed his mind and back-pedalled. The future lies in a partnership-like, federal solution. I believe that both sides are willing to agree to this. Of course, Christofias also has problems in his country: somehow he has to bring the conservatives on board, and storms keep appearing in the water glass. Recently, even the church stepped forward with a pronouncement. The same is happening, of course, on the other side. Only, the two leaders, Christofias and Talat, share similar political views and both want a solution.

Interview: Tuba Tunçak

Translated from the German by Nancy Joyce

Prof. Heinz A. Richter teaches at the Institute of History at the University of Mannheim. He has published numerous books on Cyprus and the conflict in Cyprus.

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