The International Community Must Take Action

There was some media coverage of the pogroms in Kyrgyzstan early last summer, but before long the world had turned its attention to other things, and the country was quickly forgotten again. But this could have grave consequences far beyond the borders of Central Asia. By Louise Arbour

Unrest in Kyrgyzstan (photo: AP)
Louise Arbour fears a further escalation in Kyrgyzstan: "If the world does not react swiftly and boldly here, the consequences will be devastating"

​​There is a hole in the map of Central Asia, where Kyrgyzstan used to be. The country was once regarded as an outpost in the midst of unstable authoritarian regimes, as a relatively tolerant, democratic country. Today it is deeply divided, a place where the state holds barely any authority. If the world does not react quickly and boldly to this situation, the consequences will be devastating.

Over the past few months, Kyrgyzstan has experienced a dizzying plunge into political chaos. After years of mismanagement and corruption, President Kurmanbek Bakiyev was unseated by a provisional government that has not been able to impose its authority over significant regions of the country.

Because the authority of the state is so weak, southern Kyrgyzstan was shattered in June of this year by an explosion of violence, destruction and looting. Kyrgyz people fought with members of the Uzbek minority. Hundreds of people died, most of them Uzbeks. Two thousand buildings were destroyed, most of them residential buildings. The rift between the ethnic groups is now even more profound.

If the country's central administration has ever claimed to hold control of the south of the country, since this outbreak of violence it has lost whatever authority it might have had.

New supporters of extremism

Melis Myrzkmatov, the dynamic and resolute young nationalist mayor of Osh, the largest city in the south, escaped the bloodshed. He is politically more powerful than ever, and his brand of extremism is gaining more and more supporters – just how many was revealed when transitional President Rosa Otunbayeva demanded his resignation.

Rosa Otunbayeva during a speech (photo: AP)
Dizzying descent into political chaos: transitional President Rosa Otunbayeva and her interim government are too weak to assert political stability

​​He flatly refused and declared to a gathering of cheering supporters in Osh that central government in the Kyrgyz capital Bishkek no longer had any authority in the south. And he even went a step further, and called on Osh to be declared the country's capital.

Now the battle has openly broken out between the humiliated provisional government and the unruly mayor. It may sound like a provincial conflict, but it represents a serious security problem for the entire region – and far beyond.

As long as southern Kyrgyzstan remains out of the control of the central state authority, the country's drug trade will continue to operate. It is already an important power and economic factor in the region. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) estimates that a total of 95 tonnes of narcotics pass through Central Asia headed for Russia and Europe. The office calls the city of Osh a "regional hub of trade activities."

Violent nationalism

As a result, the region could soon attract Islamic fighters. The political vacuum presents them with the opportunity to win new recruits and garner support.

Kurmanbek Bakiyev (photo: AP)
In April of this year, after years of mismanagement and corruption, President Kurmanbek Bakiyev was forced to resign

​​The June pogroms have shown that the next outbreak of violence between Kyrgyz and Uzbeks is unavoidable, if the extreme nationalism on both sides cannot be curbed. And the if the violence does flare up again, then the outnumbered ethnic group will ask the Islamic radicals for help.

The path back to stability in the country will be long and arduous, not least because there is no trustworthy/reliable/solid power, or at least a monitoring force, present in the affected region. Kyrgyzstan needs an international police force and diplomatic presence to ensure that the violence is not repeated. And finally, it needs help to ensure that the cities and civil society can be built up again.

Appeal to the international community

At the moment, the chances of all this coming to pass are not very promising. Even the 52 unarmed police officers from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), despatched to the country much too late, have become the focus of Kyrgyz nationalist anger.

Demolished houses in the city of Osh (photo: DW)
The regional administration in Osh, says Arbour, continues to impose exclusionary ethnic policies. "Kyrgyzstan needs an international police force and diplomatic presence to ensure that the violence is not repeated," she writes

​​Unfortunately, both the central government and the OSCE are shying away from the challenge. But when state authority is unwilling or not in a position to stabilise the situation of a country, then the international community must take action.

It is in the interests of the international community to support an inquiry into the events of last June. And international organisations such as the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, and the OSCE High Commissioner on National Minorities must play a central role in this process. Organisations such as these have the necessary expertise to conduct an investigation of this nature. And through them, the international community can make it clear that future aid for Kyrgyzstan will be conditional upon such a probe.

Processes of disintegration

The global community needs a unified strategy for the reconstruction of southern Kyrgyzstan. It must make every effort to guarantee that no money is distributed to extreme nationalists or corrupt government representatives.

Aid donors will above all have to ensure that no money reaches the regional administration in Osh, as long as it continues to impose exclusionary ethnic policies and refuses to recognise the authority of the central government.

Unfortunately, it could already be too late for all efforts to restore unity to this divided nation. The processes of disintegration have been allowed to advance too far, and too much has happened this year.

For this reason, the UN Security Council – and primarily its members Russia and the US – must now ensure that a crisis intervention programme is in place so that the community of states is in a position to react swiftly and efficiently to waves of violence and flows of refugees in the region.

The world did not really notice the pogroms in June, it was not interested in the outbreak of violence on the edge of Europe. For this reason, it appears to be very optimistic to believe that the international community will follow up on these proposals.

But what is the alternative? The alternative would be to sit back and watch the country implode – a catastrophic situation that could have repercussions far beyond the borders of Central Asia.

Louise Arbour

© Süddeutsche Zeitung/Qantara.de 2010

Canadian national Louise Arbour, 63, is President of the International Crisis Group. She was UN High Commissioner for Human Rights until 2008, when she received the UN Human Rights Prize.

Edited by: Nimet Seker, Lewis Gropp/Qantara.de

Qantara.de

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