The President's New Rivals

​​In October 2004, Hamid Karzai, the West's leader of choice in Afghanistan, became the first democratically elected president of the country. Twelve months later, parliamentary elections were held and a legislative assembly was subsequently created. The establishment of this parliamentary control body will have manifold consequences for the development of the nation.

Clan loyalty more important than political affiliation

The members of Afghanistan's parliament passed their first democratic test in early January 2006 when they elected Yunus Qanuni, an ethnic Tajik, as president of the lower house of parliament. In this multi-ethnic state, people's allegiance lies first and foremost with their tribes. Consequently, loyalty to a clan is generally more important than religious or political affiliation.

The Afghan parliament is dominated by Pashtun members. This explains why the victory of an ethnic Tajik over a rival Pashtun candidate (the infamous "warlord" and Islamist Abdul Rasul Sayyaf) in the elections for president of the lower house is such a turn-up for the books.

The election means that President Karzai, a politically moderate Pashtun, will now have a moderate and sober ethnic Tajik as an opponent in parliament. However, even though both politicians pledge constructive, constitutional co-operation, they are both power-conscious and ambitious - characteristics that make them natural rivals. So it is just a matter of time until friction - and maybe even confrontations - arise.

Thus far, President Karzai has more or less steered the fortunes of the country single-handedly, at least he has in those areas where the central government has any influence. Now, however, any decisions that require the support of parliament will be subject to the control of that legislative body. The whole situation will be made more difficult by the fact that the members of parliament do not have any parliamentary experience.

Political challenge for the President

The Afghan parliament is a melting pot of the particularist interests of a variety of tribes. Traditionalist views dominate the minds of the parliamentarians. Most members of parliament are local in their outlook and are unlikely to focus on national matters. Direct confrontations between the secular and the strictly religious will shape political debates in parliament.

In view of the lack of political parties in the country - the election was not based on party membership - President Karzai will have to make concessions to changing parliamentary groupings in order to gain majority backing for his parliamentary decisions. The first difficulty will be the reshuffling of the cabinet.

Not only must Karzai put forward convincing candidates for the ministerial posts, he must also ensure a careful balance of tribe representation in the cabinet if the government is to have any chance of succeeding.

In order to win the trust of the parliament, the President and his cabinet must present more than just a programme for government. They must also table a plan for the restructuring of the country that contains clear political, social, and above all economic prospects for development. To date, the reconstruction measures for Kabul have borne more resemblance to a list of ad-hoc measures than to a major national restructuring strategy.

Moreover, the gulf between the rich and the poor is continually widening. On the one side are the nouveau riche, people who have benefited from the civil war and enjoy displaying their affluence; on the other are the masses - including Afghans who have returned from abroad - who lost everything in the war.

Karzai's policy of national reconciliation

The biggest challenge facing President Karzai's government is still the fight against the cultivation of and trade in drug crops, and the persistent campaign of destabilisation mounted by terrorist groups.

With its limited financial resources, the government is powerless to fight the drugs mafia. Despite reducing the land used for the cultivation of poppies by 20 per cent, Afghanistan is the world's top producer of drugs, supplying over 85 per cent of the drugs on the world's market.

One effective way of fighting drugs would be to heavily subsidise the cultivation of wheat as an alternative to poppies. However, this would have to be an international rather than a national effort as it would require massive assistance from the international community.

The policy of national reconciliation, which Karzai cites again and again, aims to give armed militia a chance to return to civilian life, thereby increasing the gulf between the "hardliners" and the "moderates".

The government can also provide tangible evidence that this policy is working: several of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar's commanders have laid down their weapons. Hekmatyar is the leader of the "Islamic Party of Afghanistan" and was responsible for several atrocities before the arrival of the Taliban.

Moreover, the government's repeated offers of amnesty have meant that even some of the most infamous cadres of the Taliban militia have returned to civilian life and even hold seats in parliament.

However, this policy of integrating former "holy warriors" galls some members of parliament, especially those who have not forgotten the "ethnic and religious cleansing" of the years 1996 to 2001. The President will also have to account for this in the near future.

Said Musa Samimy

© DEUTSCHE WELLE/DW-WORLD.DE/Qantara.de 2006

Translated from the German by Aingeal Flanagan

Qantara.de

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