U.S. undermining "any hope for a successful political process"
A civil war is raging in Libya. Since April, the capital, Tripoli, has been under siege by militias led by General Khalifa Haftar. To date, this offensive marks the high point of tensions between the two groups vying for leadership: Haftar and his militias in the east of the country, and the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) led by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj in northwestern Libya.
In early July, the Tajoura refugee camp, located east of Tripoli, got caught up between the front lines (see picture above). According to the UN, 53 people were killed in two air raids targeting the camp and some 130 were injured. The UN indicated the attacks could amount to war crimes — an accident could be ruled out since both warring parties had received the camp's geographic co-ordinates in order to avoid exactly that kind of attack. The GNA, internationally recognised as Libya's leadership, blamed Haftar and his Libyan National Army (LNA). Haftar, however, has rejected any responsibility.
The UN Security Council condemned the airstrikes in the strongest terms and intended to emphasise the point with an official statement. That was when the US delegation put its foot down, without providing a specific reason. Such a condemnation from the UN could have been seen as a criticism of Haftar's approach — and President Donald Trump publicly pledged support for Haftar in April.
Change of tack in U.S. policy
In a phone call between Trump and Haftar on 15 April, the U.S. president "recognised Field Marshal Haftar's significant role in fighting terrorism and securing Libya's oil resources," according to a White House statement published several days later. "The two discussed a shared vision for Libya's transition to a stable, democratic political system."
When he's dealing with the outside world, Haftar presents himself as a campaigner for a free Libya where extremists have no place. He's the strongman who drives terrorist organisations like "Islamic State" out of the country, the general claims. That is, of course, to Trump's liking.
But publicising the conversation with Haftar was an unusual step, as the U.S. still officially recognises the administration led by al-Sarraj as Libya's legitimate government. Just a few days before the phone call, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had criticised Haftar's Tripoli offensive in the strongest terms. "We have made clear that we oppose the military offensive by Khalifa Haftar's forces and urge the immediate halt to these military operations against the Libyan capital," Pompeo said on 8 April.
Trump's friendly phone call has signalled the opposite, namely that Haftar has "been given a green light by the United States to continue. And that's disastrous," says Jeffrey Feltman. The U.S. diplomat was UN undersecretary for political affairs from 2012 to 2018 and U.S. assistant secretary of state for near eastern affairs from 2009 to 2012.
"You've seen the U.S. try to have it both ways: To not look as though they're backing a brutal military assault on Tripoli, while also not backing away from Haftar," he said. "Appearing to back Haftar's move on Tripoli is a mistake that undermines any hope for a successful political process."
Haftar has "little regard for democracy"
The U.S. is not the only Security Council member to support Haftar. Officially, Russia and France have recognised the Government of National Accord, but according to experts, they simultaneously back Haftar. In addition, several countries in the region are ignoring an arms embargo which the UN body adopted in 2011. Egypt and the United Arab Emirates supply arms to Haftar and financially support the LNA. Both countries are partners with the US, but the Trump administration has not used his influence to clamp down on those arms supplies.
Washington's behaviour had "given a green light to Haftar's regional supporters who are violating the UN arms embargo," says Frederic Wehrey, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank. "So it's been, I think, tremendously damaging to peace and U.S. interests."
Wehrey, who met Haftar in 2014, believes it's unlikely the general will halt his military campaign without pressure from third parties. "Haftar has long said that he wants to rule the country," Wehrey added. "He has very little regard for democracy and pluralistic politics. He believes Libya should be ruled with a strong hand, and preferably under him."
Outside influence a decisive factor
Currently, neither Haftar and his LNA nor the Government of National Accord give the impression that they are working toward a diplomatic solution. This is why it's crucial that other countries take action, experts have said. "The U.S. should first of all call for a ceasefire. It needs to be very forceful in holding all sides accountable for their actions on the battlefield. Most importantly, the U.S. needs to exert diplomatic leverage toward the regional states that are interfering in Libya, sending in weapons and really pouring gasoline on the fire," said Wehrey.
However, he does not believe Washington will apply pressure on its key associates, Egypt and the UAE. "I don't think that's going to happen because of other US concerns, personal ties between the Trump administration [and the two countries]," he said. In addition, there were important "other regional factors, like the Iran concern."
Feltman warned that if world powers like the U.S. did not commit to a political peace process and bring the warring factions to the negotiating table, the civil war could have dire consequences for the people in Libya, and Tripoli in particular. Both sides had to "finally roll up their sleeves and work out their differences politically," he said. Otherwise "it could very easily become like Aleppo. And why would anyone want that?"
© Deutsche Welle 2019