Mystery surrounding leadership of Boko Haram in Nigeria

Claims that Nigeria's Boko Haram has been "decapitated" have been spectacularly rebuffed by the jihadists' leader, yet his first broadcast in months may not see off an impending mutiny, say analysts.

Abubakar Shekau released an eight-minute audio recording on Sunday – his first since March – denying claims by Chadian leader Idriss Deby that he had been replaced and dismissing the president as a "hypocrite" and a "tyrant". The tirade was a reaction to Deby telling reporters in N'Djamena last week that Boko Haram was no longer led by the fearsome Shekau and that his successor, whom he named as "Mahamat Daoud", was open to talks with the government.

Security analysts accept the Shekau recording as genuine and many experienced observers are taking Deby's claims with scepticism, pointing out that similar reports have proven untrue in the past. But Ryan Cummings, chief security analyst at South African consultancy Red 24 and an expert on the Nigerian insurgency, described the Chadian head-of-state's claims as "not without merit".

Cummings believes Boko Haram may be an umbrella movement comprising many disparate factions rather than a monolithic organisation and says internal rivalries "would be no means be a new development for the sect". He points to the formation of Ansaru, a splinter group formed in 2012 on the back of ideological differences and a leadership struggle between Shekau and a high-ranking Boko Haram commander known as Khalid al-Barnawi. "So this does highlight that a precedent for leadership squabbles and factionalism does exist within the Boko Haram entity," said Cummings.

Boko Haram has been waging a six-year uprising against the Nigerian state, claiming more than 15,000 lives, but the jihadists' recent extension of their north-eastern insurgency across borders has brought Chad and its neighbours into the fray.

In March, Shekau pledged allegiance to the Islamic State group and its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, renaming his organisation "Islamic State West Africa Province", or "ISWAP".

Deby's speech on the group's decapitation made headlines around the world, but shed little light on Shekau's putative replacement, an apparently new player in global jihad who was virtually unknown before last week.     (AFP)

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Militant Islamism in Nigeria: The Radical Seed of Boko Haram