Breakthrough or Break Down?

​​ "Urgently" is a word frequently heard in everyday conversation, but rarely in politics. It therefore carries great weight whenever it is uttered by politicians. Recently, the foreign ministers of the European Union demanded that Turkey "urgently" needed to normalize relations with Cyprus.

This issue had previously been formulated in vague terms. Now it sounds like a deadline. The year 2009 seems like it will be a decisive one for Turkey's membership negotiations to the EU. Should Ankara fail to resolve the problems with Cyprus by the end of the year, Brussels could break off negotiations. It would then be almost impossible to revive the talks.

Cyprus as a sticking point

"Turkey is entering a critical year in which its prospects for EU membership have reached the point of breakthrough or break down," warn the political experts from the International Crisis Group (ICG). An interruption in the accession negotiations would be fatal, as resumption would require the ascent of all 27 EU states. Yet, views on a possible Turkish membership in the organization remain widely divergent.

During a recent trip to Brussels, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan clumsily decided to play the energy card, which did not go down well at all with his hosts. Erdogan warned that Ankara was in a position to block the EU's Nabucco project.

The EU regards the construction of the gas pipeline as playing a central role in its attempts to find an alternative to gas supplies from Russia. José Manuel Barroso, President of the European Commission, reacted to Erdogan's statement with clear words – accession talks and energy security are two very different pairs of shoes. Erdogan quickly backed away from his threat.

A customs union as a sticking point

As a result of Ankara's continued refusal to allow access for ships and airplanes from Cyprus, an EU member state, to Turkish ports and airports, EU governments froze talks on accession chapters dealing with important trade and economic issues.

With Turkey's failure to completely implement the customs union with the EU, these chapters will remain frozen. In addition, previously begun talks will only be completed once Turkey fulfils the so-called Ankara Protocol.

The Turkish government has made the opening of the ports and airports dependant on the negotiations to reunite Cyprus. The EU does not want to get involved in the dispute about Turkey recognizing the Greek Cypriot government as the only legitimate government on the island.

​​ Since Cyprus is an EU member, the organization cannot play a neutral role as mediator. This suits a number of EU states quite fine, as Cyprus serves as a bone of contention providing them with a factual argument to oppose Turkish membership.

According to the ICG, if Ankara and Nicosia do not come to some sort of a solution by the end of the year, then those opponents of Turkish membership among the 27 EU states will use the opportunity to start a policy debate over the largest and most controversial accession candidate.

"Should a European government demand the suspension of accession negotiations, then there is currently a great risk that this could have serious consequences," warns ICG expert Hugh Pope.

Membership pushed off into the distance

Until now, the EU has not taken a definitive position with respect to Turkey. Since October 2005, it has negotiated with Ankara over a membership not expected to come into effect until 2020 at the earliest. Although full membership is indeed the official goal of negotiations, the predominantly Muslim country would still not automatically become a member even when it fulfils all criteria.

Whether the EU can, or more importantly, even desires to come to terms politically and economically with Turkish membership is also a matter that will play a role in the conclusion of negotiations. No other accession candidate to the EU has ever faced such hurdles nor has the EU ever transformed this kind of political decision into a public trial.

The EU is generally seen as taking a hypocritical stance, even among diplomats in Brussels. The EU's continuing failure to take a clear position strengthens, above all, the anti-European forces within Turkey. Even the lack of progress on reforms that the EU has been demanding can, in part, be blamed on Europe's non-committal approach.

Over the past three years, the Erdogan government has lost its zeal for reform and has instead become preoccupied with domestic political problems. With EU states sending contradictory signals, the European project just slides down Ankara's task list even further.

New impetus for dialogue

The mood in Brussels now depends on whether Erdogan will once again push through reforms after local elections in March, says the Dutch EU parliamentarian Joost Lagendijk (Green), an expert on the accession talks.

​​ Membership supporters in the EU have their hopes up since a Minister for European Affairs has begun work in Ankara. Supporters include Sweden, which hopes to use its EU presidency in the second half of the year to bring new impetus to the dialogue with Ankara.

In the report on Turkey presented in late 2008, the EU Commission and the European Parliament once again urged Turkey to finally implement the constitutional reforms that have been promised for years. The EU sees "deadlock instead of progress" in the areas of free expression of opinion, freedom of religion, and the Kurdish issue, according to European Commissioner for Enlargement Olli Rehn.

A firm but fair approach

The Finnish EU Commissioner is taking a firm but fair approach in dealing with Turkey. Promises once made will not be broken, stresses Rehn continuously. He also emphasizes that the EU is not a Christian club. Yet, Turkey should not expect a "discount on accession criteria" for the role it plays in Europe's security policy.

The Commission's most recent report highlights the strategic importance of Turkey for the first time. Ankara's efforts in the Caucasus and Middle East crises have shown Europeans that they simply cannot afford to ignore Turkey in the prevention and resolution of conflicts in the region.

The return of a reinvigorated Russia to the world stage and the increasingly significant role of energy supply and security in EU policy also make it imperative that the EU does not lose Turkey.

Both sides are economically dependant on one another. For Turkey, the prospects of membership have proven to be an anchor of stability, and the current financial crisis has made clear that the future of the country as a trading partner and investment location is inseparably linked to its relationship with the EU.

Competition on the European labour market

In the long term, it is important for the EU to commit itself to the growing Turkish market order to maintain a competitive position with the booming economies of Asia. "The EU will profit from the young and well-educated Turkish labour force," stresses Commissioner Rehn.

Many European citizens, however, fear that EU membership for this large country will lead to increased competition in the labour market. Rehn has already announced that member states will be able to prevent the influx of Turkish workers on a temporary or permanent basis.

"We don't only require the support of governments in the EU," said Barroso following his meeting with Erdogan. "We also have to win over public opinion in the EU for Turkish membership."

This year will not only be decisive for the course of bureaucratic negotiations. Elections to the new European Parliament will take place in June and Germany holds elections in October. European politicians determine their policies primarily on the basis of voter fears.

The EU parliamentarian Joost Lagendijk therefore councils Turkey to take a pragmatic approach. "This year, Ankara must work closely with all membership supporters," he says. "It shouldn't wait for everyone to receive it with open arms."

Daniela Schröder

© Qantara.de 2009

Translated from the German by John Bergeron

Qantara.de

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