Power politics in IranFallout from Mohammed Javad Zarif's political bombshell
Since the age of 18, Mohammed Javad Zarif has consistently presented himself as unshakeably convinced, media savvy and power conscious. Even when he was proselytising for political Islam under the California sun during the student movements of the 1970s, nearly 42 years ago.
Mohammed Javad Zarif weathered all the power fluctuations of the past century and has also managed to survive the often life-threatening intrigues of the Islamic Republic. Today, he is 61 years old and has almost reached the end of his march through the institutions. His term as foreign minister is due come to an end in a few weeks.
What will become of the man some call "the smiling face of a ruthless theocracy" after that, no one knows. Some credulous circles see him as the future president of Iran, others would rather see him in prison than in the presidential palace. For a dead, but still omnipresent adversary could now prove Zarif's undoing.
The long shadow of Qassem Soleimani
"Hunter of hunters" – these three words were written under the picture of the commander of the Quds Brigades, Qassem Soleimani, which adorned the T-shirts of millions of Shia pilgrims who tried to cross the border with Iraq in the hot summer of 2016 in the Iranian desert. Their destination was the city of Karbala, 280 kilometres away.
The heroic designation for the head of the Quds, the outlying arm of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, came from Putin supporters, Iranian media claimed. Since then, the global pandemic has put an end to mass pilgrimages to Karbala, and Soleimani was killed in a drone strike at the Baghdad airport in January 2020 on Trump's orders. Last Sunday (4/25), Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif set the record straight about the general's true image, including his relationship with Putin.
Iran's hero was a vassal of Putin
For six years, radical media in Tehran had circulated information that it was General Soleimani who persuaded Putin to intervene in the Syrian war during a visit to Moscow. Now, however, the chief diplomat in Tehran is speaking his own truth: according to Zarif, it was the other way around. Putin ordered the commander of Iran's Quds Brigades to Moscow.
Is Javad Zarif risking everything? Why is he revealing valuable secret and actionable information that can only originate from his country's worst enemies? Is he trying to commit "political suicide", as some Internet commentators write? What is his aim? Often, certainties are as fleeting as time itself. But can truth strike like a bomb, or lead to dramatic aftershocks, as in an earthquake? Without doubt, it can.
Five days ago, Javad Zarif detonated this media bomb, the far-reaching consequences of which are only gradually becoming apparent. They will determine his personal fate, as well as the outcome of the upcoming presidential election in June, for which the Revolutionary Guards are already preparing.
The "bombshell" was a three-hour recording of a seven-hour interview with economic journalist Said Leylaz, a confidant of President Hassan Rouhani, held two months ago. According to a statement, the journalist wanted to conduct interviews with the president and his ministers for an "oral history" project about the Rouhani years in office, which are coming to an end.
Zarif leaked tape ripples: Hesamedin Ashena resigns. Rouhani's top advisor & head of presidency's strategic office. He commissioned the oral history project.
15 people banned from leaving the country including Ashena & Sayeed Leylaz who interviewed Zarif.
— Farnaz Fassihi (@farnazfassihi) April 29, 2021
During the interview, Zarif emphasises several times that what he says must not be made public, that he is only telling stories for the future, for history and historiography, and that is the only reason he is speaking so openly. The interviewer, too, probably did not intend to publish what he said, or at least that is what he claims. It is still unclear who leaked the recording of the conversation.
Last Sunday (25.04), all Persian-language TV stations abroad broadcast the recording. Since then, the political aftershocks have been tremendous.
During the rather boring conversation, Zarif shares nothing but the truth that has long been known: the Revolutionary Guards determine everything in Iran, both domestically and in terms of foreign policy. Zarif then provides examples of their central position and adds telling details that are likely to influence future debates and conflicts in the entire region.
Only for the history books?
Interestingly Zarif rarely uses the word "Revolutionary Guards". Instead, he speaks of Meydan میدان)). This Persian word can be translated as place, scene, field, but also battlefield, depending on the context. Zarif, however, is mainly concerned with the "commander of the Meydan", meaning the dead but still highly revered Qassem Soleimani.
Aside from the obligatory homages, Zarif paints a picture of Soleimani as a man with a destructive drive for dominance, a power-conscious jack-of-all-trades who wanted to dominate everything and everyone. He describes him as a man with an all-encompassing claim to power who would answer to no one.
"In the Islamic Republic, the Meydan (the battlefield, meaning the Revolutionary Guards) rules. I sacrificed diplomacy to it, but the Meydan never helped diplomacy," Zarif says, offering telling examples and sometimes startling details to back up his argument which historians and, in some cases, the courts will indeed have to deal with.