Tight race between two Muslims as Nigeria holds presidential poll

When Nigerians head to the polls on Saturday, they will be able to choose from a list of a whopping 72 presidential candidates. But only two contestants are expected to have a chance of winning: incumbent Muhammadu Buhari, who is vying for a second term on behalf of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and Atiku Abubakar of the main opposition People Democratic Party (PDP).

It is the first time two Muslims, both from Nigeria's north and both belonging to the Fulani ethnic group, will be frontrunners in a presidential election.

Traditionally, the race for the presidency has a religious dimension in Nigeria, where most APC supporters live in the largely Muslim north, while the PDP has its voter base in the largely Christian south.

Apart from their shared religious and ethnic background, Buhari and Atiku - who is popularly called by his first name only - have little in common.

Buhari, 76, who hails from Katsina State, is a devout and conservative Muslim, while Atiku, born in Adamawa State, is a liberal, lauded for uniting Nigerians across ethnic and religious divides.

Buhari, a former military ruler (1983-85), is known for being disciplined, austere, honest and incorruptible - a rare track record in Nigerian politics. The gaunt, retired army general was in 2015 elected based on his pledge to end corruption in politics and the oil industry. [embed:render:embedded:node:34455]Nigeria - Africa's largest economy and the world's twelfth-largest oil producer in 2018 - loses billions of dollars of oil revenues each year to graft, theft and mismanagement. Buhari also pledged to stop Islamist terrorist group Boko Haram, which has killed thousands of people since 2009.

Although Boko Haram has been substantially weakened during Buhari's time in office, terrorism, inter-communal violence and corruption remain key issues in the West African nation. Nigerians also remain concerned about the state of Buhari's health.

Rumours about Buhari's failing health have been circulating since he spent several months on medical leave in London in 2017 and went for another lengthy medical check-up in Britain in 2018. The nature of his illness or treatment was never disclosed.

Atiku, who holds a law degree and was vice president under President Olusegun Obasanjo (1999-2007), is an astute entrepreneur. The 72-year-old owns a business conglomerate that includes companies in the oil, media, beverages, education, agriculture and logistics sectors. But rumours of corruption have tainted Atiku's success.

In a country where more than half of the population of roughly 200 million people are living on 1.90 dollars a day, according to the World Bank, Atiku pledges to lift 50 million Nigerians out of extreme poverty by 2025. One way of achieving this is Atiku's plan to privatise and thereby modernise, the state oil company.

Political analysts agree that the election will be an extremely tight race.

The fact that Buhari's APC controls more than twice as many states as the PDP, was giving the incumbent a "slight advantage," said Jideofor Adibe, associate professor of political science at Nasarawa State University in Keffi, in a blog post. "However, this advantage is not a guarantee," according to Adibe.

Both Buhari and Atiku - who already competed against each other for the position of APC candidate in the 2015 presidential polls - last year signed an agreement to hold a peaceful election. But experts have voiced concern that either candidate might try to mobilise security forces or influence the electoral commission or judiciary if they don't win.

If the poll was deemed unfair or fraudulent, both candidates might try to manipulate key state institutions, Sylvester Odion-Akhaine, a political scientist at Lagos State University, told journalists.

About 84 million registered voters will be able to elect their president at more than 175,000 polling stations between 8 am and 2 pm on 16 February.

Observer teams from the European Union, African Union, United States, France and Britain will monitor the poll. Preliminary results are expected two days after the election. A candidate has to receive more than 50 percent of votes as well as a quarter of votes in two thirds of Nigeria's 36 states to win in the first round.    (dpa)