Yemen′s HouthisDefenders of the country?
Last December, Houthi fighters killed Yemen′s former president after he attempted to end a long-standing alliance with the Houthis. Saleh, a genuinely Machiavellian politician with an outstanding ability to build alliances, apparently made the deal with the Saudis hoping it would pave the way back to power – either for him or his son Ahmed Ali.
Yemen′s incumbent president for 33 years, Saleh was forced to resign following the popular uprising in 2012, when he was replaced by his deputy Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi.
Prior to his assassination, the Houthi-Saleh alliance had fought together against the Saudi-led coalition, the latter shoring up Hadi′s internationally recognised government. Despite a long history of mutual distrust and violent conflict, Saleh and the Houthis became allies in 2014, joining forces in an attempt to overthrow President Hadi.
With the help of Saleh and his supporters, the Zaid Shia Houthis took control of Sanaa and forced Hadi into exile. Then, last December, Reuters news agency reported that Saleh was ready to turn a new page in relations with Saudi-led coalition if they stopped their attacks on Yemen. The Houthis interpreted this statement as an unforgivable betrayal and assassinated him.
Saleh′s death has further complicated an already complex situation in Yemen: many are wondering whether the Houthis have gone too far and whether they can maintain their alliances.
Houthis growing stronger
Relying on force and intimidation to maintain their controI over Sanaa following Saleh′s assassination, the Houthis have targeted Saleh loyalists, either killing or arresting them. Whether such an excessive response will endanger the already fragile alliances between the Houthis and other tribal and military elites remains to be seen.
Adam Baron, a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, notes that there has been a surprising degree of continuity so far, at least on the surface. It is also clear that the Houthis are not even close to being defeated or weakened. ″If anything, they have grown stronger, consolidating power and seizing the bulk of the Saleh network′s military installations and its weapons. The Houthis are unlikely to be eliminated any time soon,” he said.
Beth Grill, Senior Policy Analyst at RAND Corporation, on the other hand, does not believe that Saleh′s death has meant one side gaining an advantage over the other. What it may have done, however, is herald a new stage in the conflict and the ongoing deterioration of the country. This is likely to result in a realignment of interests among the complicated factions within Yemen and unfortunately an even more prolonged period of unrest.